20256 Publications
ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate
Wei Zhou, Changjia Li, Haicheng Zhang, Lindsay C. Stringer, Jingyu Wang, Zhongci Deng, Zhen Wang
Abstract: A thorough understanding of vegetation resilience to climate variability is critical for sustaining ecosystem functions and terrestrial carbon sinks. Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global extreme weather events and vegetation dynamics, its impacts on vegetation resilience remain unclear. Here we estimate global present-day (1981-2018) and future (2015-2100) vegetation resilience using a lag-1 autocorrelation analysis of global leaf area index (LAI) time series and investigate its teleconnection to ENSO. Our findings reveal that ENSO significantly affects vegetation resilience across 53% of the global vegetated area. Within these regions, 15% are linked primarily to large-scale atmospheric synchrony with ENSO, 51% are mainly shaped by ENSO-driven local climate anomalies, and the remaining 34% are influenced by both processes. Future projections suggest that the area impacted via ENSO-driven climate anomalies may expand by 7-10%, with Eastern Siberia and northern North America newly affected. Our study provides a coherent global assessment of vegetation resilience sensitivity to ENSO, identifies teleconnected hotspots and potential influential pathways, and informs targeted restoration and climate-adaptive ecosystem governance under climate change.
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ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate
Wei Zhou, Changjia Li, Haicheng Zhang, Lindsay C. Stringer, Jingyu Wang, Zhongci Deng, Zhen Wang
Abstract: A thorough understanding of vegetation resilience to climate variability is critical for sustaining ecosystem functions and terrestrial carbon sinks. Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global extreme weather events and vegetation dynamics, its impacts on vegetation resilience remain unclear. Here we estimate global present-day (1981-2018) and future (2015-2100) vegetation resilience using a lag-1 autocorrelation analysis of global leaf area index (LAI) time series and investigate its teleconnection to ENSO. Our findings reveal that ENSO significantly affects vegetation resilience across 53% of the global vegetated area. Within these regions, 15% are linked primarily to large-scale atmospheric synchrony with ENSO, 51% are mainly shaped by ENSO-driven local climate anomalies, and the remaining 34% are influenced by both processes. Future projections suggest that the area impacted via ENSO-driven climate anomalies may expand by 7-10%, with Eastern Siberia and northern North America newly affected. Our study provides a coherent global assessment of vegetation resilience sensitivity to ENSO, identifies teleconnected hotspots and potential influential pathways, and informs targeted restoration and climate-adaptive ecosystem governance under climate change.
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Factors of smallholder engagement in forest management: a case in a hilly region in Southwestern China
Wenxing Yang, Cai Li, Zhongci Deng, Wei Zhou, Jingyu Wang, Wei Li, Xiao Zhang, Zhen Wang
Abstract: Understanding the engagement of smallholders in forest management requires a nuanced consideration of livelihood capital and social networks. However, the specific mechanisms through which these factors influence management choices remain insufficiently understood, especially in less developed rural contexts. Drawing on a case study of a single village in the hilly region of southwestern China, this study explores the factors that shape smallholders' forest management strategies based on household survey data. We classify management approaches into three categories: self-cultivation (S), leasing to companies (L), and a mixed mode (M). In this local context, self-cultivation is the most common approach, with households' livelihood capital scores exhibiting the pattern S > M > L. Larger and higher-quality forestland areas are associated with a greater likelihood of leasing. In contrast, access to forest mortgage loans, agricultural equipment, and production inputs is positively linked to the adoption of self-cultivation. The choice of a mixed strategy is more likely among households with expanded farmland, a higher proportion of agricultural income, and access to diverse information sources. Social network analysis reveals that village leaders act as central information brokers, while homophily contributes to convergence in management decisions among neighbors. A qualitative analysis also highlights additional factors perceived to influence decision-making. Although based on a single case, the study illustrates the important roles of livelihood capital and social networks in shaping management strategies and points to the need for locally tailored policies that reduce barriers and promote flexible, sustainable use of forest resources.
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Factors of smallholder engagement in forest management: a case in a hilly region in Southwestern China
Wenxing Yang, Cai Li, Zhongci Deng, Wei Zhou, Jingyu Wang, Wei Li, Xiao Zhang, Zhen Wang
Abstract: Understanding the engagement of smallholders in forest management requires a nuanced consideration of livelihood capital and social networks. However, the specific mechanisms through which these factors influence management choices remain insufficiently understood, especially in less developed rural contexts. Drawing on a case study of a single village in the hilly region of southwestern China, this study explores the factors that shape smallholders' forest management strategies based on household survey data. We classify management approaches into three categories: self-cultivation (S), leasing to companies (L), and a mixed mode (M). In this local context, self-cultivation is the most common approach, with households' livelihood capital scores exhibiting the pattern S > M > L. Larger and higher-quality forestland areas are associated with a greater likelihood of leasing. In contrast, access to forest mortgage loans, agricultural equipment, and production inputs is positively linked to the adoption of self-cultivation. The choice of a mixed strategy is more likely among households with expanded farmland, a higher proportion of agricultural income, and access to diverse information sources. Social network analysis reveals that village leaders act as central information brokers, while homophily contributes to convergence in management decisions among neighbors. A qualitative analysis also highlights additional factors perceived to influence decision-making. Although based on a single case, the study illustrates the important roles of livelihood capital and social networks in shaping management strategies and points to the need for locally tailored policies that reduce barriers and promote flexible, sustainable use of forest resources.
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Revealing the complex relationship between urbanization and soil erosion by water in China
Wei Li, Keke Li, Jingyu Wang, Wenxing Yang, Zhongci Deng, Yuemin Yang, Cai Li, Zhiyi Li, Zhen Wang
Abstract: Urbanization alters land use patterns, reducing soil erosion through surface hardening, while simultaneously increasing erosion due to enhanced agricultural activities and surface disturbance. However, the complex relationship between urbanization and soil erosion remains insufficiently studied. This study uses a system dynamics (SD) model and a future land use simulation (FLUS) model to simulate the land use pattern in China and quantifies the effects of urbanization on soil erosion by integrating the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a counterfactual non-urbanization scenario analysis. Further, a multiregional input-output analysis (MRIO) is used to investigate the cross-regional effects of urbanization. The findings suggest that urbanization generally reduces soil erosion in most provinces, especially in key agricultural regions and areas highly vulnerable to erosion, such as Liaoning, Jilin, and Sichuan. The reduction is primarily attributed to changes in steep-slope cropland, highlighting the need for targeted management strategies in these areas. Moreover, our study also indicates that provinces with higher economic development indirectly contribute to soil erosion in other provinces due to consumption patterns under the actual and non-urbanization scenarios. Although urbanization mitigated the overall cross-regional impact on erosion in terms of absolute quantity (decreased 14.54 million tonnes), it intensified the erosion inflow of Hunan (1.94 %), Guangdong (3.53 %), and Fujian (2.63 %) from Guangxi and Sichuan. Our research highlights the comprehensive impacts of urbanization on soil erosion, providing new insights on soil erosion prevention from a complex social-ecological system perspective and policy making at national and provincial scales.
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Revealing the complex relationship between urbanization and soil erosion by water in China
Wei Li, Keke Li, Jingyu Wang, Wenxing Yang, Zhongci Deng, Yuemin Yang, Cai Li, Zhiyi Li, Zhen Wang
Abstract: Urbanization alters land use patterns, reducing soil erosion through surface hardening, while simultaneously increasing erosion due to enhanced agricultural activities and surface disturbance. However, the complex relationship between urbanization and soil erosion remains insufficiently studied. This study uses a system dynamics (SD) model and a future land use simulation (FLUS) model to simulate the land use pattern in China and quantifies the effects of urbanization on soil erosion by integrating the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a counterfactual non-urbanization scenario analysis. Further, a multiregional input-output analysis (MRIO) is used to investigate the cross-regional effects of urbanization. The findings suggest that urbanization generally reduces soil erosion in most provinces, especially in key agricultural regions and areas highly vulnerable to erosion, such as Liaoning, Jilin, and Sichuan. The reduction is primarily attributed to changes in steep-slope cropland, highlighting the need for targeted management strategies in these areas. Moreover, our study also indicates that provinces with higher economic development indirectly contribute to soil erosion in other provinces due to consumption patterns under the actual and non-urbanization scenarios. Although urbanization mitigated the overall cross-regional impact on erosion in terms of absolute quantity (decreased 14.54 million tonnes), it intensified the erosion inflow of Hunan (1.94 %), Guangdong (3.53 %), and Fujian (2.63 %) from Guangxi and Sichuan. Our research highlights the comprehensive impacts of urbanization on soil erosion, providing new insights on soil erosion prevention from a complex social-ecological system perspective and policy making at national and provincial scales.
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Opportunity for mitigating soil loss by water erosion in cropland through crop switching and improved management in China
Keke Li, Zhanhang Zhou, Zhen Wang, Yi Zeng, Klaus Hubacek, Pasquale Borrelli, Cai Li, Wenting Zhang, Zhongci Deng, Jingyu Wang, Zhihua Shi
Abstract: Cropland is persistently affected by soil loss by water erosion in China, which causes economic loss and threatens soil health. Integrating crop switching and improved management provides a promising strategy for controlling soil loss by water erosion in cropland and promoting sustainable agriculture. However, optimizing crop composition with fewer inputs involves balancing agricultural resource use with environmental costs. Aiming to explore the potential of crop switching as a strategy for mitigating soil erosion in cropland, we develop a spatial optimization model that redistributes the sown areas of different crops in each prefecture-level city based on existing resource availability. Our findings gained from our simulations show that crop switching in China alone can reduce total soil erosion in cropland by an estimated 13 %. Furthermore, combining crop switching with improved agricultural management practices can further reduce soil erosion in cropland by an estimated 25 %. Cereals including maize, wheat, and rice demonstrate significant potential for reducing soil erosion in cropland. Shifting major maize-producing areas northward could result in a substantial decrease in soil erosion, ranging from 10 % to 19 % of historical soil erosion in cropland. These results offer implications for formulating regional strategy in mitigating soil erosion challenges in China while maximizing the benefits from existing agricultural resource.
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Opportunity for mitigating soil loss by water erosion in cropland through crop switching and improved management in China
Keke Li, Zhanhang Zhou, Zhen Wang, Yi Zeng, Klaus Hubacek, Pasquale Borrelli, Cai Li, Wenting Zhang, Zhongci Deng, Jingyu Wang, Zhihua Shi
Abstract: Cropland is persistently affected by soil loss by water erosion in China, which causes economic loss and threatens soil health. Integrating crop switching and improved management provides a promising strategy for controlling soil loss by water erosion in cropland and promoting sustainable agriculture. However, optimizing crop composition with fewer inputs involves balancing agricultural resource use with environmental costs. Aiming to explore the potential of crop switching as a strategy for mitigating soil erosion in cropland, we develop a spatial optimization model that redistributes the sown areas of different crops in each prefecture-level city based on existing resource availability. Our findings gained from our simulations show that crop switching in China alone can reduce total soil erosion in cropland by an estimated 13 %. Furthermore, combining crop switching with improved agricultural management practices can further reduce soil erosion in cropland by an estimated 25 %. Cereals including maize, wheat, and rice demonstrate significant potential for reducing soil erosion in cropland. Shifting major maize-producing areas northward could result in a substantial decrease in soil erosion, ranging from 10 % to 19 % of historical soil erosion in cropland. These results offer implications for formulating regional strategy in mitigating soil erosion challenges in China while maximizing the benefits from existing agricultural resource.
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Transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets has higher environmental and affordability trade-offs for emerging and developing economies
Zhongci Deng, Yuanchao Hu, Xiaoxi Wang, Cai Li, Jingyu Wang, Pan He, Zhen Wang, Brett A. Bryan
Abstract: Switching to alternative global diets offers established benefits, but the challenges and opportunities for individual countries during and after the transition remain unassessed. In this study, we project changes in water use, dietary quality, and food affordability under four dietary scenarios (including Mediterranean diet, the EAT-Lancet diet, the Healthy US-Style diet, and Vegetarian diet), assessing the potential implications at the country level from 2020 to 2070. Here, we show that by 2070, transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets can improve dietary quality by 30.29 – 45.43%, with all countries reducing water use (1.21 – 14.73%) and increasing food affordability (9.29 – 63.23%). However, in the initial phases, increased food demand escalated water use and worsened food affordability, especially in emerging and developing economies, with the maximum average deterioration being 2.62% and 13.06%, respectively. These highlight the need for long-term planning and financial support to ensure successful global transitions. Dietary transitions offer health and environmental benefits, but their challenges are often overlooked. This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore country-specific opportunities and challenges before and after the transition.
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Transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets has higher environmental and affordability trade-offs for emerging and developing economies
Zhongci Deng, Yuanchao Hu, Xiaoxi Wang, Cai Li, Jingyu Wang, Pan He, Zhen Wang, Brett A. Bryan
Abstract: Switching to alternative global diets offers established benefits, but the challenges and opportunities for individual countries during and after the transition remain unassessed. In this study, we project changes in water use, dietary quality, and food affordability under four dietary scenarios (including Mediterranean diet, the EAT-Lancet diet, the Healthy US-Style diet, and Vegetarian diet), assessing the potential implications at the country level from 2020 to 2070. Here, we show that by 2070, transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets can improve dietary quality by 30.29 – 45.43%, with all countries reducing water use (1.21 – 14.73%) and increasing food affordability (9.29 – 63.23%). However, in the initial phases, increased food demand escalated water use and worsened food affordability, especially in emerging and developing economies, with the maximum average deterioration being 2.62% and 13.06%, respectively. These highlight the need for long-term planning and financial support to ensure successful global transitions. Dietary transitions offer health and environmental benefits, but their challenges are often overlooked. This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore country-specific opportunities and challenges before and after the transition.
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Biodiversity Impacts of Land Occupation for Renewable Energy Infrastructure in a Globally Connected World
Jingyu Wang, Cai Li, Zhongci Deng, Jamie Carr, Lindsay Carman Stringer, Keke Li, Yuanchao Hu, Chen Zeng, Kai Huang, Sha Peng, Zhen Wang
Abstract: The transition to renewable energy exacerbates direct land occupation by infrastructure, leading to habitat degradation and biodiversity loss. However, biodiversity loss driven by the production and consumption of different renewable energy deployment scenarios remains largely unquantified. Quantifying biodiversity loss associated with land occupation of renewable energy infrastructure is essential for a sustainable energy transition. Here, we developed a novel data set to evaluate renewable energy-related biodiversity loss by considering the current infrastructure setting and future development pathways. We found that the land occupation of renewable energy infrastructure resulted in global biodiversity loss equivalent amounting to 19 × 10 –4 global pdf in 2015. Severe biodiversity loss was concentrated primarily in densely populated and economically advanced countries, such as China, the United States, Brazil, India, Australia, Russia, and countries across Western Europe. International trade accounted for 14% of the biodiversity loss. Future renewable energy transition scenarios will lead to a global cumulative biodiversity loss of 1.2 × 10 –2 –2.2 × 10 –2 global pdf during 2015–2060. By 2060, ambitious energy transition policies are projected to increase the biodiversity loss by 1.7–1.8 times. The results underscore that while renewable energy could tackle climate change, its deployment should avoid encroaching on biodiversity hotspots.
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Biodiversity Impacts of Land Occupation for Renewable Energy Infrastructure in a Globally Connected World
Jingyu Wang, Cai Li, Zhongci Deng, Jamie Carr, Lindsay Carman Stringer, Keke Li, Yuanchao Hu, Chen Zeng, Kai Huang, Sha Peng, Zhen Wang
Abstract: The transition to renewable energy exacerbates direct land occupation by infrastructure, leading to habitat degradation and biodiversity loss. However, biodiversity loss driven by the production and consumption of different renewable energy deployment scenarios remains largely unquantified. Quantifying biodiversity loss associated with land occupation of renewable energy infrastructure is essential for a sustainable energy transition. Here, we developed a novel data set to evaluate renewable energy-related biodiversity loss by considering the current infrastructure setting and future development pathways. We found that the land occupation of renewable energy infrastructure resulted in global biodiversity loss equivalent amounting to 19 × 10 –4 global pdf in 2015. Severe biodiversity loss was concentrated primarily in densely populated and economically advanced countries, such as China, the United States, Brazil, India, Australia, Russia, and countries across Western Europe. International trade accounted for 14% of the biodiversity loss. Future renewable energy transition scenarios will lead to a global cumulative biodiversity loss of 1.2 × 10 –2 –2.2 × 10 –2 global pdf during 2015–2060. By 2060, ambitious energy transition policies are projected to increase the biodiversity loss by 1.7–1.8 times. The results underscore that while renewable energy could tackle climate change, its deployment should avoid encroaching on biodiversity hotspots.
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20241 Publication
Human-altered soil loss dominates nearly half of water erosion in China but surges in agriculture-intensive areas
Keke Li, Jingya Yang, Jingyu Wang, Zhen Wang, Yi Zeng, Pasquale Borrelli, Klaus Hubacek, Yuanchao Hu, Baodong Xu, Nufang Fang, Chen Zeng, Zhanhang Zhou, Zhihua Shi
Abstract: Soil erosion is a major land degradation process, threatening global agricultural sustainability and carbon cycling. Although geomorphic evidence confirms that human activities have significantly accelerated soil erosion, to what extent humans have altered soil erosion and how to attribute it to different land use changes and economic activities remains uncertain at the national scale. Here, by developing an integrated modeling framework to assess human-altered soil erosion (HASE) by water and its drivers, we estimate that nearly half of the total water erosion in China is dominated by HASE, rising to over 90% in agriculture-intensive areas. Household consumption emerges as a major hidden factor driving HASE. Conversely, human efforts, such as soil conservation practices like terraces, have effectively mitigated soil erosion. Our findings provide a starting point to evaluate the magnitude of human intervention in soil erosion at the regional or global scale, highlighting the importance of controlling accelerated soil erosion from a coupled social-ecological perspective.
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Human-altered soil loss dominates nearly half of water erosion in China but surges in agriculture-intensive areas
Keke Li, Jingya Yang, Jingyu Wang, Zhen Wang, Yi Zeng, Pasquale Borrelli, Klaus Hubacek, Yuanchao Hu, Baodong Xu, Nufang Fang, Chen Zeng, Zhanhang Zhou, Zhihua Shi
Abstract: Soil erosion is a major land degradation process, threatening global agricultural sustainability and carbon cycling. Although geomorphic evidence confirms that human activities have significantly accelerated soil erosion, to what extent humans have altered soil erosion and how to attribute it to different land use changes and economic activities remains uncertain at the national scale. Here, by developing an integrated modeling framework to assess human-altered soil erosion (HASE) by water and its drivers, we estimate that nearly half of the total water erosion in China is dominated by HASE, rising to over 90% in agriculture-intensive areas. Household consumption emerges as a major hidden factor driving HASE. Conversely, human efforts, such as soil conservation practices like terraces, have effectively mitigated soil erosion. Our findings provide a starting point to evaluate the magnitude of human intervention in soil erosion at the regional or global scale, highlighting the importance of controlling accelerated soil erosion from a coupled social-ecological perspective.
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20231 Publication
Factors affecting phase change in coupling coordination between population, crop yield, and soil erosion in China's 281 cities
Jingyu Wang, Zhen Wang, Keke Li, Cai Li, Fang Wen, Zhihua Shi
Abstract: Soil erosion in cropland areas is mainly influenced by agricultural activities and natural conditions. Previous studies have largely focused on the biophysical processes or economic drivers of soil erosion. There have been few attempts to balance the impacts of population, agricultural production, and soil erosion to address the global socioecological predicament facing cropland. We combined the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) with the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method to evaluate the coupling coordination level between population demand, agricultural production, and soil erosion as well as the influence of socioeconomic factors in 281 Chinese cities for the period from 1995 to 2010. Coupling between population, crop yield, and soil erosion was generally moderate across China during 1995-2010. Cities with a GDP in the range of 4.42-241.54 billion could fall into different coupling coordination phases that were identified by K-means clustering. The SHAP results showed that GDP and population density were the most important factors influencing the coordination level, while industrial structure was the key determinant that distinguished the different phases in cities with a similar economic status. Building on research on the evolutionary aspects of system coupling coordination, our study reveals for the first time the probable causes of changes in system coupling coordination via machine learning algorithms, providing a reference for future investigations. Our findings also provide a basis for developing policy recommendations to balance social demands, agriculture, and environmental protection.
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Factors affecting phase change in coupling coordination between population, crop yield, and soil erosion in China's 281 cities
Jingyu Wang, Zhen Wang, Keke Li, Cai Li, Fang Wen, Zhihua Shi
Abstract: Soil erosion in cropland areas is mainly influenced by agricultural activities and natural conditions. Previous studies have largely focused on the biophysical processes or economic drivers of soil erosion. There have been few attempts to balance the impacts of population, agricultural production, and soil erosion to address the global socioecological predicament facing cropland. We combined the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) with the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method to evaluate the coupling coordination level between population demand, agricultural production, and soil erosion as well as the influence of socioeconomic factors in 281 Chinese cities for the period from 1995 to 2010. Coupling between population, crop yield, and soil erosion was generally moderate across China during 1995-2010. Cities with a GDP in the range of 4.42-241.54 billion could fall into different coupling coordination phases that were identified by K-means clustering. The SHAP results showed that GDP and population density were the most important factors influencing the coordination level, while industrial structure was the key determinant that distinguished the different phases in cities with a similar economic status. Building on research on the evolutionary aspects of system coupling coordination, our study reveals for the first time the probable causes of changes in system coupling coordination via machine learning algorithms, providing a reference for future investigations. Our findings also provide a basis for developing policy recommendations to balance social demands, agriculture, and environmental protection.
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